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October 2025 , Pages 551-586

Authors

Prof.Dr.Suleiman Abdullah Ismail Ismail 1

1 Salahaddin University/Erbil - College of Arts - Department of Geography

DOI logo 10.17656/11770

Keywords

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the interaction between climatic and geopolitical factors in reshaping the features of human settlement and economic activities in the Qaraj sub-district, south of Erbil Governorate. The results showed sharp fluctuations in rainfall rates between 1981/1982 - 2024/2025, ranging from a minimum of 50.6 mm to a maximum of 441.9 mm, a difference of 8.8 times, reflecting the fragility of the agricultural environment. Furthermore, Lang's aridity index revealed that the region falls within a severely arid zone with a value of 9.4, as approximately 46.5% of the study years were classified as severely arid. This has led to the deterioration of rain-fed agriculture and a sharp decline in production, in contrast to a significant improvement during semi-humid seasons when the yield per dunam exceeded 850 kg. This was accompanied by an expansion in the areas of severe and very severe desertification, which increased from 38% in 1990 to 69.3% in 2020, indicating an exacerbation of environmental pressures. On the demographic side, the paper showed radical transformations since the mid-20th century. The proportion of Kurds decreased from 85% in 1947 to less than 10% in 2024, while the proportion of Arabs rose to about 90%, influenced by Arabization policies and armed conflicts, especially after 2014. This is also evident in the rural landscape, where the total number of villages reached 69, of which 33 are abandoned (47.8%). It was found that Kurdish villages experienced the highest rates of abandonment (65%), while Arab villages recorded lower rates (30%), maintaining larger population sizes that sometimes-exceeded 1000 inhabitants, in contrast to small or nearly empty Kurdish villages (10–50 inhabitants). Therefore, the paper concludes that the combination of drought and desertification with the sensitive geographical location and official policies has reshaped the demographic map and weakened the potential for human and agricultural stability, making Qaraj a clear model of the interaction between climate and politics in the disputed territories of Iraq.

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  • First online20 October 2025
  • Published at20 October 2025

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